2000

Matej Bel University, Faculty of Economics, Department of Applied Informatics, Banská Bystrica, Slovakia
The University of Economics, Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, Department of Statistics and Probability, Prague, Czech Republic

Schedule of the 3rd International Scientific Conference

Applications of Mathematics and Statistics in Economy

August 31 – September 1, 2000

Poprad, Slovakia

SCHEDULE

31.8.           

09 00    – 09 10          Opening

09 10    – 10 00         Luptáčik M. (Vienna): Eco-Efficiency Analysis of the Economy

10 00    – 10 50         Hindls R. (Prague) – Kozák J. (Prague) – Hronová S. (Prague): About New Concepts of Seasonal Adjustment of MME – Series

The paper is interested in Eurostat’s activities in the field of seasonal adjustment of economic time series in several countries. This contribution is interested with different methodical problems: 1. hypothesis about the form of cecomposition of the components of time series, 2. the concept of ARIMA based models, 3. the so colled “trading day” component, 4. the models of outliers, 5. some principles of estimation of parameters.

10 50    – 11 10         Coffe break

11 10    – 11 40         Zimka R. (Banská Bystrica): Generalization of the Schinasi’s Macroeconomic Model and some of its Properties

11 40    – 12 00         Abrahám M. (Banská Bystrica): Effectivity Measurements of using Mathematical-statistical Methods in Management of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises

12 00    – 12 20         Marek L. (Prague): Dynamic Regression Model

I’m interested in Building Dynamic Regression Models with respect to Model Identification in my paper. There are two basic methods of Identification. I discuss both of them. First method is Linear Transfer Function Identification Method and second is Identification using Prewhitening and ECF. I mention a Corner Table and Rules for Identifying Rational Distributed Lag Transfer function.

12 20    – 14 00         Lunch

14 00    – 14 20         Špirková J. (Zvolen): Statistical methods for extremal events

The real world often informs us about such events through statistical data : major insurance claims, flood levels of rivers, large decreases(or indeed increases) of stock market values over a certain period of time or maximal and minimal performance values of a portfolio.All these have in common that they concern questions about extreme values of some underlying set of data.

14 20    – 14 40         Haunschmied J. (Vienna): Optimal Enforcement and Treatment Policies on an Illicit Drug Market

14 40    – 15 00         Trešl J. (Prague): Arch and Garch Models for Stock Returns

Some selected returns from Prague stock exchange during 1996-1999 are analyzed using arch and garch models. This approach enables to catch both long-memory effects and non-stationarity of variance. Some results of simulation studies are presented.

15 00    – 15 20         Coffee break

15 20    – 15 40         Hudák O. (Banská Bystrica): Normal Distribution of Returns and Slovak Capital Market: Tests of its Presence

A hypothesis of presence  of normal distribution of returns on theemergin capital market (sector of anonymous trades) in Slovak Republic was tested recently. While some of our results were presented in Hospodarske noviny in recent years, this contribution discusses the presence of the normal distribution on effective capital markets and on emerging capital markets in general and testing of its presence using methods of statistical mathemathics. Our hypothesis of the presence of the normal distribution on the capital market in Slovak Republic (an emerging capital market), methods of its testing, and our results are described firstly. Discussion concerning our statistical mathematics tests results shows that there is a part of the market which may be characterized by the presence of the normal distribution of returns.

15 40    – 16 00         Řezánková H. (Prague) – Marek L. (Prague): Statistics and the Internet

The paper presents the web page of a project wich is worked with the aim to collect data about the Czech economy and create an environment for their analysis. Time series of macroeconomic indicators and results of their analyses are presented and the files in excel format are provided. Users can also use other information.

16 00    – 16 20         Lesáková Ľ. (Banská Bystrica): Using Break Even Analysis as an Analytical Management Technique

In the paper will be presented: 1. the break-even analysis as an descriptive procedure which describes relationships among variables, 2. the break-even formula and break-even graphs, 3. how the break-even analysis can help to determine a margin of safety and leverage calculations, 4. drawbacks to using break-even analysis.

16 20    – 16 40         Marková V. (Banská Bystrica): The Functional and Cost Approach to the Pricing

The functions of the Product. Cost (and Profit) Pricing. The relations between functions and costs. The method of pair comparison, the method of declinational scale.

16 40    – 17 00         Pecáková I. (Prague): Reliability Analysis

When conditions for making the measurement change, the results should not. A measuring instrument is than reliable. There are a number of commonly used measures of scale reliability. Reliability analysis allow us to study the properties of measurement scales and the items that make them up. The SPSS-procedures also provides information about the relationships between individual items in the scale.

17 00    – 17 20         Blatná D. (Prague): Adaptive Robust Estimation of Location

The adaptive procedure uses the sample data to classify the data into one of several categories of distributions to make a preliminary decision about the procedure to use for the main inference. Different classifications and results of some comparative studies will be presented.

17 20    – 17 40         Jarošová E. (Prague): Repeated Measures Model

Repeated measures designs are used in the behavioral and life sciences. Observations are collected at exactly defined times and give information about the development of a response. The assumptions of the use of univariate or multivariate analysis relating to the covariance structure will be discussed.

17 40    – 18 00         Adamczyk L. (Wroclaw): The FDA Approach to Time Series Forecasting

The paper deals with two problems. The first of them concerns the mathematical background of Functional Data Analysis ( FDA ). The second one deals with the FDA approach to short-term forecasting problems, especially in financial time series prediction.

 

1.9.             

09 00     – 09 50        Feichtinger H. G. (Vienna): Contribution on Economic Dynamics

050     – 10 40        Ostasiewicz W. (Wroclaw):  Quality of Life Measurement

After short review of QOL problems from historical perspectives, there are presented the basic methodological issue. Concerning the measurements quality of life as a whole as weel as its particular concerns.

10 40    – 11 00         Coffee break

11 00    – 11 20         Ostasiewicz S. (Wroclaw): Moral Hazard and Insurance Premium

Paper is addressed the problem of premium determination admitting the existance of moral hazard possibility. Presented model includes also the relation to the costs of self protection.

11 20    – 11 40         Rusnak Z. (Wroclaw): Some Economical Aspects of well-being in Poland

In the paper are presented some methods of measurement material aspects of well-being in Polish households. Results of those methods are based on the data from representative household budget survey(HBS). The data concern the two major groups of households; employees households and retirees and pensioners households.

11 40    – 12 00         Homa M. (Wroclaw): Some Remarks on Hattendorff’s Theorem

In the paper are presented Hattendorff’s clasical results by a life insurance polisy. Thus the results are formulated in setting with quite general payments, discount function and time intervals, all stochastics. A general representation is given for variances of the insurance company’s losses.

12 00    – 12 20         Pastor K. (Bratislava): Economic Determination of Fertility Changes, Slovak Republic Data 1990-1996

The analysis of relevant data in sistricts and major cities of Slovakia shows that economical shocks (liberalization of consumer prices in 1991, the reform of family subsidies in 1993) worked as important impulse for the fertility decline. On the other hand, more developed regions with higher standard of living have reacted more sensitively. The results are confronted with theories of Becker and Easterlin.

12 20    – 14 00         Lunch

14 00    – 14 20         Heilpern S. (Wroclaw): Ordering Risks

The paper is devoted to methods of ordering actuarial risks. Some kinds of such methods and relations between them are presented. The application of insuranse premium to construction of order relatin is studied.

14 20    – 14 40         Klůfa J. (Prague): Sampling Inspection Plans and their Computation

A new sampling plans by variables when the remainder of rejected lots is inspected are considered in this paper. These plans minimize the mean inspection cost per lot of process average quality under condition that the probability of accepting a lot of tolerance quality, shell be 0.1. We report on an algorithm the calculation of the SE so-called LTPD plans by variables.

14 40    – 15 00         Matušů M. (Prague): Segmented Regression on Spline Basis

The scope of this contribution is segmented regression on spline basis. It deals with automatic assignment of time points to the set of state points and construction of knotted points.

15 00    – 15 20         Marček D. (Žilina): Fuzzy Linear regression Model – an Alternative to Classical AR Model in Economic Application

15 20    – 15 40         Rymarczyk M. (Wroclaw): Data mining: genetic-neuronal approach

This paper concerns fiding relation between collection of exogenic and endogenic  variables in form of neural nets.

GA algoritm is used for approximation of the particular neural net with respect to the given level of numerical complexity.

Essential part of the paper is the computer interacting presentation of the genetic-neural system connected with the above problem.

15 40    – 16 00         Závodský P. (Prague): Ján Feješ as a Statistican

Ján Feješ, the little known researcher, carried out the unique campaign of 19th century-exploratory field research performed with use of elementary statistical methods.

16 00    – 16 20         Pomffyová M. (Poprad): The usage of the KIS (Clerical Information Systems) by Calculation of Financial Economic Indicators

The article describes possibilities of the usage MS EXCEL-tools by calculation of selected financial economic indicators and their analysis in the decision making and controlling proces.

16 20    – 16 40         Vojtíčková A. (Poprad): Problems Connected with the Utilization of Computers in Accounting

Because computers are a suitable means of mass data processing, they are used in accounting as well. Computer technology with its effective software replaces complicated and time consuming manual accounting, but one of the practice control ways has been lost. The purpose of this article is to point at some problems connected with the usage of computers in accounting and to show some ways how to prevent the problems.

16 40    – 17 00         Laco P. (Banská Bystrica): Problems of Seasonality in Tourism

The paper deals with the problem of seasonality in tourism. Seasonality cannot be eliminated entirely but there are possible ways of reducing its negative effects on business. Two main ways are suggested how to achieve this goal. First, to stimulate a demand after the high season is over to extend the high season period. Price differentiation, advertising, caterers and attractions during off-season are main tools for solving this problem. Second, to adapt business to demand fluctuation in order to reduce negative effect of season to business organization.

 

WORKING LANGUAGE

Written form of lecture slides are supposed to be in English. The  presentation of your lecture is recommended to be in English.

TECHNICAL EQUIPMENT

White board, overhead projector and PC with LCD panel will be at your disposal.

CONFERENCE FEE

Conference fee is 700,- Slovak crowns (SKK). It should be paid either by a bank transfer by July 31, 2000 (Account number: 0301100662/0900, Account name: Občianske združenie Ekonómia, Bank: Slovenská sporiteľňa, 29. augusta 34, pobočka Banská Bystrica, 974 00 Banská Bystrica, Slovakia, Variable symbol: 2500) or on the spot.

The fee includes admission to the conference, Proceedings of the conference, refreshment and admission to the welcome party.

PAPERS AND CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

Papers will be published after positive reviewing in the Conference Proceedings. We expect to obtain these papers in English typed in MS Word, 10 pages maximum. They should be handed over to the secretary at the conference in printed version as well as in electronic form on floppy disc 3,5’’ or by e-mail: laco@ef.umb.sk.

Paper should involve also the author’s institution address and the author’s e-mail address.

LODGING AND BOARD

Double rooms are available for the participants at the University hostel. Price for one person per night is 200 Slovak crowns (SKK). Those who are interested in a hotel accommodation are expected to inform the secretary about it by June 21 via e-mail: laco@ef.umb.sk. Breakfast, launch and dinner will be available from August 31 to September 1. On August 31 a welcome party is planned for the participants.

Lodging and board charges will be paid on the spot.

CONFERENCE SITE AND TRANSPORT

The conference will be held in the premises of the Branch of Economic Faculty, Matej Bel University (Banská Bystrica) in the town Poprad. Poprad (www.poprad.sk) is a gateway to the High Tatras (www.tatry.sk) – the highest mountains in the whole Carpatian Arch. From this town there is also easy access to the Low Tatras and the Slovak Paradise. Poprad is a modern town of forty-four thousand inhabitants. It can be reached easily by train (www.zsr.sk), bus, plane or car (www.mapyoscar.sk).

 

Further information can be obtained from the secretary of the conference at the address:

Ing. Peter Laco

KHI, EF UMB

Tajovského 10

975 90 Banská Bystrica

Phone: ++421 / (0)88 / 4462414
Fax: ++421 / (0)88 / 4152793
e-mail: laco@ef.umb.sk
http://www.econ.umb.sk/users/trnovec

 

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